Gangwon FC 1-1 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Gangwon FC take on FC Anyang.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Anyang make the trip to Chuncheon Songam Stadium to face Gangwon FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Gangwon FC (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Gangwon FC at Chuncheon Songam Stadium this season: 4W 6D 0L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
FC Anyang have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Anyang away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Gangwon FC against 1.60 for FC Anyang. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Gangwon FC, 2 for FC Anyang and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Gangwon FC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
FC Anyang half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 40% versus FC Anyang 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 40% | FC Anyang 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.28 xG and FC Anyang 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.983 / defence 0.976 | FC Anyang attack 0.939 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.287. Data: 34 Gangwon FC games / 35 FC Anyang games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 35% | Draw 35% | FC Anyang 30%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.86 | Draw 2.86 | FC Anyang 3.33. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Gangwon FC 40% | FC Anyang 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 35% | Draw 35% | FC Anyang 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 54% | xG Gangwon FC 1.28 / FC Anyang 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.983 / def 0.976 | FC Anyang attack 0.939 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
FC Anyang xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang kick off?
Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang?
Gangwon FC 1 - 1 FC Anyang.
Where is Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang part of?
Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 35% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gangwon FC and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and FC Anyang?
Record (3 meetings): Gangwon FC 0W | Draws 1 | FC Anyang 2W.
What form are Gangwon FC and FC Anyang in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. FC Anyang (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gangwon FC's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against FC Anyang's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — FC Anyang's attack (0.94x) against Gangwon FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
The sample (34/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.87
35%
2.86
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.46
1.18
FC Anyang xG
2.87
35%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
11%
9.31
8%
11.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.18 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gangwon FC come into this having played 38 games, going 13W 13D 12L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, FC Anyang sit at 1.29 PPG from 38 outings (14W 7D 17L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Gangwon FC against 1.29 for FC Anyang. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gangwon FC's home form reads 6W 9D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Anyang have taken 1.11 points per game from 19 outings (6W 3D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gangwon FC are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; FC Anyang are on 1.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang in 61%.
Defensively: Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
FC Anyang
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and FC Anyang in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 13W 13D 12L in their last 38 games (1.37 PPG), while FC Anyang have gone 14W 7D 17L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or FC Anyang away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.42 PPG; FC Anyang away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or FC Anyang been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, FC Anyang in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gangwon FC won 0-3 on 6 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gangwon FC have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Anyang — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Gangwon FC
2
Draws
3
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and FC Anyang?
From 6 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 1, FC Anyang have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when FC Anyang 0-3 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and FC Anyang?
FC Anyang have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 37%, FC Anyang 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Gangwon FC) and 58% (FC Anyang).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Gangwon FC have failed to score in 42% of games; FC Anyang in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play FC Anyang?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 63% of FC Anyang's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs FC Anyang usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 58% of FC Anyang's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and FC Anyang tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, FC Anyang in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gangwon FC and FC Anyang share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Gangwon FC and FC Anyang drew 1-1 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.28 xG and FC Anyang 1.18 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against FC Anyang attack 0.94 / defence 0.94, drawn from 34/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 35% | Draw 35% | FC Anyang 30%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 40%, FC Anyang 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Anyang's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.37 PPG, FC Anyang 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.