Gangwon FC 2-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 45%, yet in-form Daegu FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 25 as Gangwon FC welcome Daegu FC to Gangneung Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 August 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gangwon FC — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gangwon FC's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Gangneung Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gangneung Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Daegu FC's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Gangwon FC's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Gangwon FC trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Daegu FC trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 54% versus Daegu FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 46% | Daegu FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.41 xG and Daegu FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.155 / defence 0.982 | Daegu FC attack 0.875 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 0.933 / away 1.168. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Gangwon FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Gangwon FC games / 22 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 45% | Draw 29% | Daegu FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Daegu FC 3.85. Gangwon FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daegu FC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 30% | Daegu FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Gangneung Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 45% | Draw 29% | Daegu FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Gangwon FC 1.41 / Daegu FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.155 / def 0.982 | Daegu FC attack 0.875 / def 1.308 | league avg home 0.933 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Daegu FC xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Gangneung Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Gangwon FC 2 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Gangneung Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 45% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Gangwon FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Daegu FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Daegu FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (1.16) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.40
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.41
1.00
Daegu FC xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
6%
16.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.00 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Gangwon FC have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 5W 9D 8L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Daegu FC's form line: 9W 7D 6L from 22 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Daegu FC are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gangwon FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gangwon FC have posted 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (3W 6D 2L).
On the road, Daegu FC have gone 4W 2D 5L from 11 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.23 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Daegu FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Blended
Daegu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 5W 9D 8L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 9W 7D 6L in their last 22 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.36 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2024, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
4
Draws
2
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 4, Daegu FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Daegu FC 2-2 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 36%, Daegu FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Gangwon FC) and 64% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Gangwon FC have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Daegu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 64% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 64% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gangwon FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Daegu FC 2-0 at Gangneung Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.41 xG and Daegu FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Daegu FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.98 against Daegu FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.31, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 45% | Draw 29% | Daegu FC 26%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 46%, Daegu FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Daegu FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Daegu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Gangwon FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.