FC Seoul 2-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Suwon City FC at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Suwon City FC make the trip to Seoul World Cup Stadium to face FC Seoul in K League 1, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Seoul have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Seoul World Cup Stadium, FC Seoul have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Suwon City FC away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Suwon City FC are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
FC Seoul — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 50% versus Suwon City FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 43% | Suwon City FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.17 xG and Suwon City FC 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 0.915 / defence 1.421 | Suwon City FC attack 1.176 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 0.977 / away 1.128. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing FC Seoul's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 FC Seoul games / 28 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 23% | Draw 23% | Suwon City FC 54%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 4.35 | Draw 4.35 | Suwon City FC 1.85. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: FC Seoul 40% | Suwon City FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 23% | Draw 23% | Suwon City FC 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG FC Seoul 1.17 / Suwon City FC 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 0.915 / def 1.421 | Suwon City FC attack 1.176 / def 1.308 | league avg home 0.977 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Suwon City FC xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
FC Seoul 2 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 23% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Seoul and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Seoul and Suwon City FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Suwon City FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Seoul's attack rating (0.92) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (1.18x) against FC Seoul's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
23%
4.28
23%
4.42
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
3.06
1.89
Suwon City FC xG
4.28
23%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
15%
6.59
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
4%
28.22
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for FC Seoul and 1.89 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 28 outings, FC Seoul have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 6W 8D 14L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 11W 8D 9L from 28 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Suwon City FC are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Seoul.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Seoul have posted 0.86 PPG from 14 outings (3W 3D 8L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 5W 4D 5L from 14 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suwon City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Seoul are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.43 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 61%.
Last 28 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 6W 8D 14L in their last 28 games (0.93 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 11W 8D 9L in their last 28 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Suwon City FC away?
Suwon City FC's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 0.86 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won 7-2 on 12 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Seoul have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Seoul
4
Draws
0
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 6, Suwon City FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and Suwon City FC?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 43%, Suwon City FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for FC Seoul and 64% for Suwon City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Seoul have failed to score in 43% of games; Suwon City FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 57% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of FC Seoul's matches and 64% of Suwon City FC's.
Do FC Seoul and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Seoul defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Suwon City FC 2-1 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.17 xG and Suwon City FC 1.89 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FC Seoul beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Suwon City FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 0.92 / defence 1.42 against Suwon City FC attack 1.18 / defence 1.31, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 23% | Draw 23% | Suwon City FC 54%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a FC Seoul win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 43%, Suwon City FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Suwon City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with FC Seoul winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.