FC Seoul 3-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Suwon City FC make the trip to Seoul World Cup Stadium to face FC Seoul in K League 1, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 March 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.15 xG and Suwon City FC 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 0.966 / defence 1.150 | Suwon City FC attack 0.888 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.051 / away 0.752. Data: 1 FC Seoul games / 1 Suwon City FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 42% | Draw 35% | Suwon City FC 22%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | Suwon City FC 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Seoul are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Seoul if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Mar 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 42% | Draw 35% | Suwon City FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG FC Seoul 1.15 / Suwon City FC 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 0.966 / def 1.150 | Suwon City FC attack 0.888 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.051 / away 0.752 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Suwon City FC xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 7 March 2021 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
FC Seoul 3 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 42% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 22% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both FC Seoul and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Seoul and Suwon City FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Seoul's attack rating (0.97) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.89x) against FC Seoul's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
42%
2.36
35%
2.84
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
1.91
0.77
Suwon City FC xG
2.36
42%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
7%
14.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 11.3 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for FC Seoul and 0.77 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Pre-Season
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won 7-2 on 12 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Seoul have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Seoul
4
Draws
0
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 6, Suwon City FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and Suwon City FC?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant FC Seoul run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Suwon City FC 3-0 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.15 xG and Suwon City FC 0.77 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Seoul beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Suwon City FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.13, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 42% | Draw 35% | Suwon City FC 22%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.