FC Seoul 0-1 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Seoul host Seongnam FC at Seoul World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Relegation Round - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Seoul stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
FC Seoul's home record at Seoul World Cup Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Seongnam FC have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Seongnam FC have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Seoul 1.00 PPG, Seongnam FC 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Seoul register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Seongnam FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, FC Seoul have won 2, Seongnam FC 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 2–0 with FC Seoul winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Seongnam FC in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 53% versus Seongnam FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 43% | Seongnam FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.46 xG and Seongnam FC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 0.918 / defence 1.026 | Seongnam FC attack 0.772 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.241. Data: 66 FC Seoul games / 66 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 48% | Draw 26% | Seongnam FC 25%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Seongnam FC 4.00. FC Seoul hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Seoul at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: FC Seoul 60% | Seongnam FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 48% | Draw 26% | Seongnam FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG FC Seoul 1.46 / Seongnam FC 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 0.918 / def 1.026 | Seongnam FC attack 0.772 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Seongnam FC xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC?
FC Seoul 0 - 1 Seongnam FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 48% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Seoul and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Seongnam FC?
Record (7 meetings): FC Seoul 2W | Draws 3 | Seongnam FC 2W.
What form are FC Seoul and Seongnam FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Seongnam FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Seoul's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Seongnam FC's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Seongnam FC's attack versus FC Seoul's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.78
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.44
0.98
Seongnam FC xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
6%
16.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for FC Seoul and 0.98 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Seoul's recent record stands at 22W 24D 28L from 74 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Seongnam FC, meanwhile, have gone 17W 19D 38L across 74 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Seoul on 1.22 PPG, Seongnam FC on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Seoul have managed 11W 11D 15L from 37 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Seongnam FC's away record stands at 6W 9D 22L across 37 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Seoul come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Seoul are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Seongnam FC are on 0.91 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 74 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Current Season
Seongnam FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Seongnam FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 22W 24D 28L in their last 74 games (1.22 PPG), while Seongnam FC have gone 17W 19D 38L in their last 74 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Seongnam FC away?
FC Seoul's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.19 PPG; Seongnam FC away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2021, when FC Seoul won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Seoul's record when hosting Seongnam FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
FC Seoul
3
Draws
3
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Seongnam FC?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 2, Seongnam FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2022, when FC Seoul 0-1 Seongnam FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and Seongnam FC?
Seongnam FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Seongnam FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 51%, Seongnam FC 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (FC Seoul) and 46% (Seongnam FC).
On the defensive side: FC Seoul have failed to score in 30% of games; Seongnam FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Seongnam FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 49% of Seongnam FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of FC Seoul's recent games and 46% of Seongnam FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Seongnam FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Seongnam FC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Seongnam FC defy the odds to beat FC Seoul 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Seongnam FC beat FC Seoul 0-1 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Relegation Round - 4, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.46 xG and Seongnam FC 0.98 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Seoul fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 0.92 / defence 1.03 against Seongnam FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.14, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 48% | Draw 26% | Seongnam FC 25%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Seongnam FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 43%, Seongnam FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Seongnam FC's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.22 PPG, Seongnam FC 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Seongnam FC win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.