FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Anyang host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Anyang Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, FC Anyang have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Anyang, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Anyang at Anyang Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (FC Anyang) versus 1.40 (Ulsan Hyundai FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Anyang register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for FC Anyang, 2 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2026, ended 1–3 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Anyang in-play and half-time data (65 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (65 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Anyang 65% and Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 52% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.00 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.934 / defence 1.445 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.967 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.350. Data: 60 FC Anyang games / 60 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 17% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 5.88 | Draw 3.57 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Anyang 70% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 17% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Anyang 1.00 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 0.934 / def 1.445 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.967 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is scheduled to kick off at 10:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Anyang Stadium.
Where is FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 17% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 55% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (6 meetings): FC Anyang 2W | Draws 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W.
What form are FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
FC Anyang (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Anyang's attack rating (0.93) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus FC Anyang's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
17%
6.00
28%
3.53
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
2.89
1.89
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
6.00
17%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
15%
6.59
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
3%
39.55
20%
4.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for FC Anyang and 1.89 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, FC Anyang have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 22W 17D 26L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Anyang is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 23W 16D 26L from 65 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Anyang on 1.28 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Anyang have posted 1.27 PPG from 33 outings (11W 9D 13L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 10W 10D 13L from 33 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Anyang are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.28 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Blended
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
FC Anyang have gone 22W 17D 26L in their last 65 games (1.28 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 23W 16D 26L in their last 65 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Anyang at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
FC Anyang's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Anyang at home: 1.27 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC Anyang's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Anyang
2
Draws
2
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 FC Anyang.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Anyang 64%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Anyang) and 39% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: FC Anyang have failed to score in 30% of games; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Anyang play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FC Anyang's games and 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FC Anyang's recent games and 39% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
FC Anyang have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.