FC Anyang 3-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Anyang host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Anyang Stadium in K League 1, Relegation Group - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, FC Anyang have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Anyang at Anyang Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC Anyang carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Anyang register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC Anyang, 1 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
FC Anyang in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Anyang 59% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 53% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.78 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 1.059 / defence 0.987 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.894 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.227. Data: 33 FC Anyang games / 66 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 53% | Draw 25% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 22%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 4.55. FC Anyang hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Anyang as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 0.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Anyang 60% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Group - 35 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 53% | Draw 25% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Anyang 1.78 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 1.059 / def 0.987 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.894 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: FC Anyang (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
FC Anyang 3 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Relegation Group - 35 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 53% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Anyang the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (3 meetings): FC Anyang 1W | Draws 1 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W.
What form are FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
FC Anyang (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Anyang's attack rating (1.06) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus FC Anyang's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Anyang Win
53%
1.89
25%
4.01
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
2.87
1.08
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
17%
5.96
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
4%
26.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for FC Anyang and 1.08 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, FC Anyang have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 12W 6D 16L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 10W 11D 13L from 34 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Anyang on 1.24 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Anyang have posted 1.47 PPG from 17 outings (7W 4D 6L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 6D 7L from 17 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Anyang come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Anyang are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.18 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 34 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
FC Anyang have gone 12W 6D 16L in their last 34 games (1.24 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 10W 11D 13L in their last 34 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Anyang at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
FC Anyang's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Anyang at home: 1.47 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC Anyang's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Anyang
2
Draws
2
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 FC Anyang.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Anyang 59%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Anyang) and 35% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: FC Anyang have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Anyang play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of FC Anyang's games and 59% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of FC Anyang's recent games and 35% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
FC Anyang have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Anyang cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 at Anyang Stadium, Relegation Group - 35, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.78 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.08 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Anyang beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 1.06 / defence 0.99 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.12, drawn from 33/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 53% | Draw 25% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 22%, with FC Anyang to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Anyang 53%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Anyang's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Anyang 1.24 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Anyang win broke the near-deadlock. FC Anyang (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.