FC Anyang 0-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Anyang host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Anyang Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC Anyang, 0 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 1–0 with FC Anyang winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 0.97 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 1.050 / defence 1.129 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.930 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.072. Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 9 FC Anyang games / 43 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 31% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 39%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Apr 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 31% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG FC Anyang 0.97 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 1.050 / def 1.129 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.930 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
FC Anyang 0 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 31% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (1 meetings): FC Anyang 1W | Draws 0 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 0W.
What form are FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC away split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Anyang's attack rating (1.05) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus FC Anyang's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
31%
3.21
30%
3.35
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
2.10
1.13
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
10%
9.89
15%
6.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.8 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for FC Anyang and 1.13 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Pre-Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC Anyang's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Anyang
2
Draws
2
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 FC Anyang.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out FC Anyang 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat FC Anyang 0-1 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 0.97 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Anyang fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 1.05 / defence 1.13 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.77, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 31% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 39%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.