Daejeon Citizen 2-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daejeon Citizen vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC make the trip to Daejeon World Cup Stadium to face Daejeon Citizen in K League 1, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Wednesday 26 October 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Daejeon Citizen (all games): 1W 0D 1L across 2 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Daejeon Citizen haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Daejeon Citizen, 1.10 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.11 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.884 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.242. Data: 0 Daejeon Citizen games / 33 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 32% | Draw 28% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Oct 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 32% | Draw 28% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.11 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.884 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 26 October 2022 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Daejeon Citizen 2 - 1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Relegation Round fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 32% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Daejeon Citizen's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack (0.88x) against Daejeon Citizen's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 0/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
32%
3.08
28%
3.60
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.37
1.26
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
9%
10.90
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.26 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Daejeon Citizen's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L in the last five. Daejeon Citizen haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Daejeon Citizen by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gimcheon Sangmu FC heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 100%.
Defensively: Daejeon Citizen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Pre-Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Daejeon Citizen or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daejeon Citizen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daejeon Citizen won 0-4 on 29 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daejeon Citizen have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Daejeon Citizen
4
Draws
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 4, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Daejeon Citizen's games and 100% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Daejeon Citizen defy the odds to beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Relegation Round, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.11 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.26 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.94, drawn from 0/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 32% | Draw 28% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Daejeon Citizen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 50%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Daejeon Citizen arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Daejeon Citizen scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.