Daejeon Citizen 2-1 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Incheon United at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 27 as Daejeon Citizen welcome Incheon United to Daejeon World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 August 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daejeon Citizen stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daejeon Citizen at Daejeon World Cup Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Incheon United — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Incheon United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Incheon United have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Daejeon Citizen 1.00 PPG, Incheon United 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Incheon United have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Daejeon Citizen.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Incheon United winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Incheon United have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Daejeon Citizen in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Incheon United in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daejeon Citizen 62% versus Incheon United 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 48% | Incheon United 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 0.98 xG and Incheon United 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.825 / defence 1.034 | Incheon United attack 0.996 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.118. Data: 59 Daejeon Citizen games / 59 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 31% | Draw 30% | Incheon United 40%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Incheon United 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Incheon United at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Incheon United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Daejeon Citizen 50% | Incheon United 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 31% | Draw 30% | Incheon United 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Daejeon Citizen 0.98 / Incheon United 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.825 / def 1.034 | Incheon United attack 0.996 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Incheon United xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United?
Daejeon Citizen 2 - 1 Incheon United.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 31% chance of winning, Incheon United a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Incheon United?
Record (5 meetings): Daejeon Citizen 0W | Draws 1 | Incheon United 4W.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Incheon United in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Incheon United (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Daejeon Citizen's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Incheon United's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Incheon United's attack versus Daejeon Citizen's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
31%
3.25
30%
3.38
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.13
1.15
Incheon United xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
10%
10.27
15%
6.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.7 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.15 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Daejeon Citizen have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 17W 24D 23L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Daejeon Citizen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Incheon United's form line: 20W 24D 20L from 64 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Incheon United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daejeon Citizen on 1.17 PPG, Incheon United on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Daejeon Citizen have posted 1.44 PPG from 32 outings (12W 10D 10L).
On the road, Incheon United have gone 11W 12D 9L from 32 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.16 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
Incheon United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 17W 24D 23L in their last 64 games (1.17 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 20W 24D 20L in their last 64 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or Incheon United away?
Daejeon Citizen's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.44 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Daejeon Citizen or Incheon United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daejeon Citizen have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Incheon United in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daejeon Citizen and Incheon United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Daejeon Citizen's record when hosting Incheon United specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daejeon Citizen
3
Draws
4
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Incheon United?
From 10 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 3, Incheon United have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Incheon United 1-1 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Incheon United?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 56%, Incheon United 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Daejeon Citizen) and 44% (Incheon United).
On the defensive side: Incheon United in 38%; Daejeon Citizen have failed to score in 28% of games; Incheon United in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play Incheon United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Daejeon Citizen's recent matches and 47% of Incheon United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 44% of Incheon United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daejeon Citizen and Incheon United tend to score early?
Daejeon Citizen have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Incheon United in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Daejeon Citizen defy the odds to beat Incheon United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Incheon United 2-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 0.98 xG and Incheon United 1.15 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.82 / defence 1.03 against Incheon United attack 1.00 / defence 0.83, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 31% | Draw 30% | Incheon United 40%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Daejeon Citizen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 48%, Incheon United 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Incheon United's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.17 PPG, Incheon United 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.