Daegu FC 0-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Daegu FC welcome Suwon City FC to DGB Daegu Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 July 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daegu FC at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Suwon City FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon City FC's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Daegu FC) versus 1.40 (Suwon City FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Daegu FC trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 55% versus Suwon City FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 45% | Suwon City FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.56 xG and Suwon City FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.173 / defence 0.851 | Suwon City FC attack 0.907 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.129. Data: 51 Daegu FC games / 51 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 53% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Suwon City FC 4.76. Daegu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 40% | Suwon City FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Jul 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 53% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Daegu FC 1.56 / Suwon City FC 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.173 / def 0.851 | Suwon City FC attack 0.907 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Suwon City FC xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 3 July 2022 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Daegu FC 0 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 53% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Daegu FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Suwon City FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Daegu FC's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Suwon City FC's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
53%
1.87
26%
3.91
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.43
0.87
Suwon City FC xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
4%
22.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.0 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.87 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 20W 18D 18L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon City FC's form line: 20W 12D 24L from 56 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.39 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.68 PPG from 28 outings (13W 8D 7L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 7W 8D 13L from 28 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Daegu FC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.41 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 56 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 20W 18D 18L in their last 56 games (1.39 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.68 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Daegu FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
5
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 50%, Suwon City FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Daegu FC) and 50% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 50% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Daegu FC's recent games and 50% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Daegu FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 19, as Daegu FC and Suwon City FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.56 xG and Suwon City FC 0.87 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Daegu FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Suwon City FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.85 against Suwon City FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 53% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 21%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, Suwon City FC 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.39 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.