Daegu FC 1-0 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
DGB Arena plays host to Daegu FC versus Suwon Bluewings in K League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Wednesday 21 April 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 0.84 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.907 / defence 1.369 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.836 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 0.947 / away 0.960. Data: 10 Daegu FC games / 10 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 27% | Draw 31% | Suwon Bluewings 41%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Suwon Bluewings 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon Bluewings at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: DGB Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Apr 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 27% | Draw 31% | Suwon Bluewings 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Daegu FC 0.84 / Suwon Bluewings 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.907 / def 1.369 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.836 / def 0.973 | league avg home 0.947 / away 0.960 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Suwon Bluewings xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 21 April 2021 at DGB Arena.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Daegu FC 1 - 0 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at DGB Arena.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 27% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Daegu FC's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. Flip it around — Suwon Bluewings's attack (0.84x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
27%
3.66
31%
3.18
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
1.93
1.10
Suwon Bluewings xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
9%
10.97
18%
5.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 15.9 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.10 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
Suwon Bluewings
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 3-0 on 8 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Daegu FC
3
Draws
2
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 5, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 0-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Daegu FC defy the odds to beat Suwon Bluewings 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Suwon Bluewings 1-0 at DGB Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 0.84 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.10 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Suwon Bluewings landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.37 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.84 / defence 0.97, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 27% | Draw 31% | Suwon Bluewings 41%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Daegu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.