Daegu FC 1-2 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Daegu FC face Gangwon FC.

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Fixture Analysis

Daegu FC welcome Gangwon FC to DGB Daegu Bank Park in K League 1 (matchday 14). Kick-off is Sunday 26 May 2024 at 09:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Daegu FC — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Daegu FC at home: 3W 6D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Gangwon FC stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, Gangwon FC have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Daegu FC) versus 1.40 (Gangwon FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Daegu FC have won 1, Gangwon FC 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.4 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 3 Apr 2024, ended Daegu FC 0–3 Gangwon FC — a Gangwon FC win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Daegu FC in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Gangwon FC in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 57% versus Gangwon FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 46% | Gangwon FC 38%). Note also that Gangwon FC surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Daegu FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.38 xG and Gangwon FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.815 / defence 0.926 | Gangwon FC attack 0.983 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.241. Data: built from Daegu FC's last 46 games and Gangwon FC's last 46.

Result probabilities: Daegu FC 43% | Draw 27% | Gangwon FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.35 | Draw 3.71 | Gangwon FC 3.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Daegu FC's last 10 home games and Gangwon FC's last 10 away games) averaging 1.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Daegu FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Gangwon FC 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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