Daegu FC 3-0 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Seoul at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs FC Seoul encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Daegu FC host FC Seoul at DGB Daegu Bank Park in K League 1, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022 at 07:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Daegu FC have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DGB Daegu Bank Park. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Daegu FC are significantly better at DGB Daegu Bank Park than their overall form suggests.
FC Seoul — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, FC Seoul have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. FC Seoul's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Daegu FC's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Daegu FC in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 56% versus FC Seoul 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 47% | FC Seoul 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.07 xG and FC Seoul 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.836 / defence 1.080 | FC Seoul attack 0.952 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.279. Data: 65 Daegu FC games / 65 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 30% | Draw 28% | FC Seoul 42%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | FC Seoul 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Seoul at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Daegu FC 40% | FC Seoul 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 30% | Draw 28% | FC Seoul 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Daegu FC 1.07 / FC Seoul 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.836 / def 1.080 | FC Seoul attack 0.952 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
FC Seoul xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Daegu FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 07:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Daegu FC 3 - 0 FC Seoul.
Where is Daegu FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Daegu FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 30% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Daegu FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and FC Seoul?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and FC Seoul in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. FC Seoul (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (0.84) and FC Seoul's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
30%
3.31
28%
3.64
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.38
1.32
FC Seoul xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
8%
12.36
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.32 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Daegu FC come into this having played 70 games, going 21W 24D 25L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, FC Seoul sit at 1.26 PPG from 70 outings (22W 22D 26L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.24 PPG, FC Seoul on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Daegu FC's home form reads 14W 11D 10L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.51 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Seoul have taken 1.29 points per game from 35 outings (11W 12D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Daegu FC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.20 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 70 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 21W 24D 25L in their last 70 games (1.24 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 22W 22D 26L in their last 70 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or FC Seoul away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.51 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2023, when FC Seoul won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
4
Draws
3
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, FC Seoul have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2025, when FC Seoul 2-2 Daegu FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 49%, FC Seoul 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Daegu FC) and 34% (FC Seoul).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Daegu FC have failed to score in 26% of games; FC Seoul in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play FC Seoul?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 57% of FC Seoul's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Daegu FC's recent games and 34% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Daegu FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Seoul.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat FC Seoul 3-0 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 33, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.07 xG and FC Seoul 1.32 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Seoul landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.08 against FC Seoul attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 30% | Draw 28% | FC Seoul 42%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Daegu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 47%, FC Seoul 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Seoul's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.24 PPG, FC Seoul 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. FC Seoul (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.