Daegu FC 0-1 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Daegu FC host FC Seoul at DGB Daegu Bank Park in K League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 08:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Daegu FC have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Seoul — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, FC Seoul have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Daegu FC) versus 1.30 (FC Seoul). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Daegu FC, 2 for FC Seoul and 3 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 2–3 with FC Seoul winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Daegu FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 53% versus FC Seoul 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 45% | FC Seoul 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 0.99 xG and FC Seoul 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.128 / defence 1.066 | FC Seoul attack 0.656 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.061. FC Seoul's defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Daegu FC games / 46 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 40% | Draw 33% | FC Seoul 27%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | FC Seoul 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — FC Seoul's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.73 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. This conflicts with form data: Daegu FC 70% | FC Seoul 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 40% | Draw 33% | FC Seoul 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Daegu FC 0.99 / FC Seoul 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.128 / def 1.066 | FC Seoul attack 0.656 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.193 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.74
FC Seoul xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Daegu FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Daegu FC 0 - 1 FC Seoul.
Where is Daegu FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Daegu FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 40% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Daegu FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and FC Seoul?
Record (8 meetings): Daegu FC 3W | Draws 3 | FC Seoul 2W.
What form are Daegu FC and FC Seoul in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. FC Seoul (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (1.13) and FC Seoul's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
40%
2.49
33%
3.00
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
1.73
0.74
FC Seoul xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8 | 13.2 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.74 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Daegu FC come into this having played 76 games, going 23W 26D 27L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, FC Seoul sit at 1.49 PPG from 76 outings (30W 23D 23L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.25 PPG, FC Seoul on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Daegu FC's home form reads 13W 16D 9L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Seoul have taken 1.37 points per game from 38 outings (13W 13D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Daegu FC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.55 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 23W 26D 27L in their last 76 games (1.25 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 30W 23D 23L in their last 76 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or FC Seoul away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.45 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 August 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2023, when FC Seoul won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
4
Draws
3
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, FC Seoul have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2025, when FC Seoul 2-2 Daegu FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 55%, FC Seoul 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Daegu FC) and 50% (FC Seoul).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play FC Seoul?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Daegu FC's games and 63% of FC Seoul's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daegu FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Daegu FC's recent games and 50% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and FC Seoul tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, FC Seoul in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Seoul defy the odds to beat Daegu FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Daegu FC 0-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 14, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 0.99 xG and FC Seoul 0.74 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Daegu FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.07 against FC Seoul attack 0.66 / defence 0.73, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 40% | Draw 33% | FC Seoul 27%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FC Seoul win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, FC Seoul 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.25 PPG, FC Seoul 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Seoul (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.