NEOM 0-3 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah make the trip to King Khalid Sports City to face NEOM in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NEOM have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NEOM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEOM at King Khalid Sports City this season: 2W 1D 5L from 8 home games — 0.88 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ahli Jeddah are 1.40 PPG clear of NEOM in recent Pro League fixtures (2.50 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for NEOM, 1 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
NEOM goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEOM 75% and Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEOM 62% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEOM 0.69 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEOM attack 0.725 / defence 1.137 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.775 / defence 0.628. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.475. NEOM's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.628 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 16 NEOM games / 50 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEOM 19% | Draw 31% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%. Fair-value odds: NEOM 5.26 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates are neutral: NEOM 75% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: King Khalid Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEOM 19% | Draw 31% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 37% | xG NEOM 0.69 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: NEOM attack 0.725 / def 1.137 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.775 / def 0.628 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
NEOM xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at King Khalid Sports City.
What was the final score in NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
NEOM 0 - 3 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Khalid Sports City.
What competition is NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives NEOM a 19% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 50% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both NEOM and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (1 meetings): NEOM 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W.
What form are NEOM and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
NEOM (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from NEOM's attack rating (0.72) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (0.63), the model arrives at 0.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (0.78x) against NEOM's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 16/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
19%
5.29
31%
3.23
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
NEOM xG
Total xG
1.99
1.30
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
5.29
19%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
5%
19.40
25%
3.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 17.7 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are NEOM and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for NEOM and 1.30 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NEOM's recent record stands at 6W 3D 7L from 16 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for NEOM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 11W 4D 1L across 16 games — 2.31 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over NEOM heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, NEOM have managed 1W 1D 5L from 7 games — 0.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.31 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 5W 1D 1L across 7 trips, a 2.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NEOM are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.62 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEOM have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEOM
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEOM and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
NEOM have gone 6W 3D 7L in their last 16 games (1.31 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 11W 4D 1L in their last 16 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEOM at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEOM at home: 0.57 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 2.29 PPG.
Have NEOM or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEOM have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
NEOM
0
Draws
2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 2 meetings on record, NEOM have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did NEOM and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when NEOM 0-3 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between NEOM and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEOM 86%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 14% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (NEOM) and 14% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 86%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEOM home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEOM play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 86% of NEOM's recent matches and 14% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEOM vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of NEOM's recent games and 14% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEOM and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
NEOM have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 0-3 hammering of NEOM.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat NEOM 0-3 at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 0.69 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.30 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.72 / defence 1.14 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.78 / defence 0.63, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEOM 19% | Draw 31% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 62%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEOM's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. NEOM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.