Damac 0-0 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al Wehda Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Damac welcome Al Wehda Club to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 December 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Damac have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wehda Club stand at 2W 1D 5L from 8 Pro League matches — 0.88 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.12 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 12% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club away from home this season: 0W 0D 5L from 5 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.88 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Damac are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.82 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.88). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Damac in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 62% versus Al Wehda Club 12%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Damac 38% | Al Wehda Club 12%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.38 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.934 / defence 0.836 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.592 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.157. Data: 39 Damac games / 8 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 57% | Draw 28% | Al Wehda Club 15%. Fair-value odds: Damac 1.75 | Draw 3.57 | Al Wehda Club 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Damac (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Al Wehda Club's lower xG of 0.57 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Damac 60% | Al Wehda Club 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Dec 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 57% | Draw 28% | Al Wehda Club 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 33% | xG Damac 1.38 / Al Wehda Club 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.934 / def 0.836 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.592 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Damac (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Al Wehda Club xG
33%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Damac vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 25 December 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Wehda Club?
Damac 0 - 0 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Damac vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Damac vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 57% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 15% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Damac and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Wehda Club?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Damac and Al Wehda Club in?
Damac (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.12 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Damac's attack rating (0.93) and Al Wehda Club's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wehda Club's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 0.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.7%), 2-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
57%
1.76
28%
3.59
15%
6.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Damac xG
Total xG
1.95
0.57
Al Wehda Club xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
6.48
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.07
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
56%
1.77
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
32%
3.12
4%
25.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.6 | 11.2 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 7.7 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Damac and 0.57 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Wehda Club?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Damac's recent record stands at 3W 4D 1L from 8 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wehda Club, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 5L across 8 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Damac by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Wehda Club heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Damac have managed 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Wehda Club's away record stands at 0W 0D 4L across 4 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Wehda Club's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Damac are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 0.50 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Damac have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al Wehda Club in 12%.
Defensively: Damac have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al Wehda Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 3W 4D 1L in their last 8 games (1.62 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Damac's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 2.00 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Damac or Al Wehda Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al Wehda Club in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Damac and Al Wehda Club runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Damac's record when hosting Al Wehda Club specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Damac
1
Draws
2
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Damac have won 3, Al Wehda Club have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2025, when Damac 0-1 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Wehda Club?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Damac see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al Wehda Club tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Damac 50% BTTS, Al Wehda Club 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Damac and 25% for Al Wehda Club.
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al Wehda Club in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Damac's recent matches and 0% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Damac's recent games and 25% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Damac's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac and Al Wehda Club finished level at 0-0 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.38 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.57 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Damac fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.93 / defence 0.84 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.59 / defence 1.13, drawn from 39/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 57% | Draw 28% | Al Wehda Club 15%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 38%, Al Wehda Club 12%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 12% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.