Damac 2-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Taawon (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Damac face Al Taawon.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Damac and Al Taawon meet at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 12 February 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
Damac's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Taawon have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Al Taawon are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Al Taawon, who have claimed 5 wins from 9 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 4 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 1–6 with Al Taawon winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Taawon have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Damac — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 56% versus Al Taawon 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 48% | Al Taawon 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 0.78 xG and Al Taawon 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.658 / defence 0.861 | Al Taawon attack 1.044 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.333. Damac's attack strength of 0.658 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Damac games / 54 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 24% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 45%. Fair-value odds: Damac 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Al Taawon 2.22. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Damac 60% | Al Taawon 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Feb 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 24% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Damac 0.78 / Al Taawon 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.658 / def 0.861 | Al Taawon attack 1.044 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Al Taawon xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Taawon kick off?
Damac vs Al Taawon kicked off at 15:45 on Thursday 12 February 2026 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Taawon?
Damac 2 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Damac vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Taawon part of?
Damac vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 24% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Damac and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Taawon?
Record (9 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 4 | Al Taawon 5W.
What form are Damac and Al Taawon in?
Damac (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Damac's attack at 0.66x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (1.04x) against Damac's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
24%
4.24
31%
3.21
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Damac xG
Total xG
1.98
1.20
Al Taawon xG
4.24
24%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
7%
14.02
21%
4.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 16.5 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Damac and 1.20 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Damac have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 10W 17D 27L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon's form line: 24W 12D 18L from 54 games, 1.56 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Taawon are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Damac.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Damac have posted 1.04 PPG from 26 outings (6W 9D 11L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 11W 4D 11L from 26 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.43 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 10W 17D 27L in their last 54 games (0.87 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 24W 12D 18L in their last 54 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.04 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Damac or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 6-1 on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Damac
4
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 1, Al Taawon have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Damac 2-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 58%, Al Taawon 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Damac) and 35% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Damac have failed to score in 31% of games; Al Taawon in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Damac's recent matches and 38% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Damac's recent games and 35% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Damac defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al Taawon 2-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 0.78 xG and Al Taawon 1.20 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Damac beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.66 / defence 0.86 against Al Taawon attack 1.04 / defence 0.82, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 24% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 45%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Damac win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 48%, Al Taawon 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Damac winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Damac (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.