Damac 1-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Damac and Al-Fayha meet at Dhamak Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 May 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Form
Damac (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Damac's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Dhamak Club Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Damac are significantly better at Dhamak Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Fayha are 0.90 PPG clear of Damac in recent Pro League fixtures (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Damac, who have won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Al-Fayha — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 4–2 with Damac winning.
The historical record gives Damac a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Damac — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 52% versus Al-Fayha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 48% | Al-Fayha 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.32 xG and Al-Fayha 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.793 / defence 0.855 | Al-Fayha attack 1.092 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.393. Damac's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Damac games / 61 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 36% | Draw 29% | Al-Fayha 35%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Fayha 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Damac dominate the H2H record, yet Al-Fayha are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Fayha (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Damac 30% | Al-Fayha 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 36% | Draw 29% | Al-Fayha 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Damac 1.32 / Al-Fayha 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.793 / def 0.855 | Al-Fayha attack 1.092 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Damac (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Al-Fayha xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Damac vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 17:15 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Damac 1 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Damac vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Fayha part of?
Damac vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 36% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Damac and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Fayha?
Record (5 meetings): Damac 3W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Damac and Al-Fayha in?
Damac (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Al-Fayha (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Damac's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (1.09x) against Damac's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
36%
2.80
29%
3.41
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Damac xG
Total xG
2.62
1.30
Al-Fayha xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
10%
10.26
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Damac and 1.30 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Damac's recent record stands at 19W 18D 24L from 61 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 19W 18D 24L across 61 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Damac against 1.23 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Damac have managed 11W 9D 10L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 11W 7D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.20 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Current Season
Al-Fayha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 19W 18D 24L in their last 61 games (1.23 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 19W 18D 24L in their last 61 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Fayha away?
Damac's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.40 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Damac won 3-0 on 15 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Damac
5
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 4, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Damac 3-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Fayha?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 50%, Al-Fayha 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Damac) and 63% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Damac have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Damac's games and 70% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Damac's matches and 63% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Damac and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 32, as Damac and Al-Fayha drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.32 xG and Al-Fayha 1.30 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.79 / defence 0.85 against Al-Fayha attack 1.09 / defence 1.16, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 36% | Draw 29% | Al-Fayha 35%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 48%, Al-Fayha 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.23 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.