Al Wehda Club 1-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Wehda Club host Al Taawon at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 March 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wehda Club stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Al Wehda Club have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Wehda Club at 1.20 PPG versus Al Taawon's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Wehda Club, 1 for Al Taawon and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Al Taawon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Wehda Club trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al Taawon trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 35% versus Al Taawon 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 35% | Al Taawon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.16 xG and Al Taawon 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.893 / defence 1.188 | Al Taawon attack 1.138 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.316. Data: 20 Al Wehda Club games / 50 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 25% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 52%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Al Taawon 1.92. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Wehda Club 40% | Al Taawon 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Mar 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 25% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.16 / Al Taawon 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 0.893 / def 1.188 | Al Taawon attack 1.138 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Al Taawon xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 17 March 2023 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon?
Al Wehda Club 1 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 25% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Taawon?
Record (1 meetings): Al Wehda Club 0W | Draws 0 | Al Taawon 1W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Taawon in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Wehda Club's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
25%
4.08
24%
4.21
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
2.94
1.78
Al Taawon xG
4.08
25%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
17%
5.92
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
4%
24.16
16%
6.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.78 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Wehda Club's recent record stands at 5W 6D 9L from 20 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 10W 4D 6L across 20 games — 1.70 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Wehda Club heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Wehda Club have managed 4W 4D 2L from 10 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Al Wehda Club are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 7W 1D 2L across 10 trips, a 2.20 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.70 PPG overall record — Al Taawon travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Wehda Club are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.40 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 5W 6D 9L in their last 20 games (1.05 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 10W 4D 6L in their last 20 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.60 PPG; Al Taawon away: 2.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al Wehda Club go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2023, when Al Taawon won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Wehda Club's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Wehda Club
2
Draws
2
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Taawon?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 2, Al Taawon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Al Taawon 0-2 Al Wehda Club.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 40%, Al Taawon 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al Wehda Club) and 60% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Wehda Club keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Wehda Club have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al Wehda Club's recent matches and 60% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al Wehda Club's recent games and 60% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wehda Club and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club and Al Taawon finished level at 1-1 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.16 xG and Al Taawon 1.78 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.89 / defence 1.19 against Al Taawon attack 1.14 / defence 0.93, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 25% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 52%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 35%, Al Taawon 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.