Al Wehda Club 1-3 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Shabab at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Al Wehda Club welcome Al Shabab to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 6 April 2025 at 20:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al Wehda Club have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Al Wehda Club at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al Shabab — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Al Shabab away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. Al Shabab's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Al Wehda Club's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Al Wehda Club's last 10 home games and Al Shabab's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Al Wehda Club have won 3, Al Shabab 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Oct 2024, ended Al Wehda Club 1–3 Al Shabab — a Al Shabab win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 59% versus Al Shabab 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 61% | Al Shabab 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Wehda Club surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Al Shabab have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.51 xG and Al Shabab 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.968 / defence 1.343 | Al Shabab attack 1.096 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.326. Al Wehda Club's defence rating of 1.343 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Shabab's projected output up. Data: built from Al Wehda Club's last 59 games and Al Shabab's last 59.

Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 30% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 3.34 | Draw 4.57 | Al Shabab 2.08. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.51 / 1.95) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Wehda Club's last 10 home games and Al Shabab's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Wehda Club 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Shabab 70% (last 10 away games).

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