Al Wehda Club 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Wehda Club host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 21 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Wehda Club — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Al Wehda Club's home record at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Wehda Club 1.90 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Wehda Club register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Al Wehda Club's 0 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2025, ended 1–4 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Al Wehda Club in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 59% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Wehda Club 61% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.60 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.908 / defence 1.202 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.538 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.451. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.538 — the away xG of 2.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 66 Al Wehda Club games / 66 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 22% | Draw 18% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 4.55 | Draw 5.56 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (61%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.28. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.28 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 2.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 60% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 22% | Draw 18% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 74% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.60 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.68 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 0.908 / def 1.202 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.538 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
2.68
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
74%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 21 May 2025 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Wehda Club 1 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 22% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 61% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al Wehda Club 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Wehda Club's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 2.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.0%. Close behind: 1-3 (7.1%), 1-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
22%
4.63
18%
5.66
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.1%
Away win
2 – 2
6.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
4.28
2.68
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
4.63
22%
Home win
5.66
18%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.89
Clean Sheet
7%
14.61
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
1%
67.63
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 2.2 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 2.68 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 4.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Wehda Club come into this having played 66 games, going 19W 11D 36L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC sit at 2.53 PPG from 66 outings (53W 8D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Al Wehda Club — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Wehda Club's home form reads 10W 7D 16L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken 2.42 points per game from 33 outings (25W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.92 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 61%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Current Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 19W 11D 36L in their last 66 games (1.03 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 53W 8D 5L in their last 66 (2.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.12 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.42 PPG.
Have Al Wehda Club or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wehda Club have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2022, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Wehda Club's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Wehda Club
2
Draws
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2025, when Al Wehda Club 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Wehda Club at 70%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Al Wehda Club and 73% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al Wehda Club's games and 64% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al Wehda Club's matches and 73% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 33, as Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.60 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.68 xG, a combined 4.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.91 / defence 1.20 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.54 / defence 1.12, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 22% | Draw 18% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 61%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.76 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.