Al Wehda Club 0-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Wehda Club at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh meet at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 January 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Al Wehda Club (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 0L across 6 games at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this term (2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al Wehda Club are significantly better at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Al Wehda Club against 1.50 for Al-Fateh. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Al Wehda Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Wehda Club 23% | Al-Fateh 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Wehda Club 23% | Al-Fateh 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.36 xG and Al-Fateh 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.774 / defence 0.835 | Al-Fateh attack 1.065 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.110. Al Wehda Club's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Al Wehda Club's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Al Wehda Club games / 43 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 45% | Draw 28% | Al-Fateh 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Fateh 3.70. Al Wehda Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wehda Club as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Wehda Club if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Wehda Club 33% | Al-Fateh 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Jan 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 45% | Draw 28% | Al-Fateh 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.36 / Al-Fateh 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 0.774 / def 0.835 | Al-Fateh attack 1.065 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Al Wehda Club (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Al-Fateh xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 27 January 2023 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh?
Al Wehda Club 0 - 2 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 45% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Wehda Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Wehda Club's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (1.06x) against Al Wehda Club's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wehda Club Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.55
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
2.35
0.99
Al-Fateh xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
7%
14.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 0.99 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Wehda Club's recent record stands at 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 6W 0D 7L across 13 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Al Wehda Club against 1.38 for Al-Fateh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Wehda Club have managed 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Al Wehda Club are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 2W 0D 4L across 6 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wehda Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Wehda Club are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.54 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club have seen both teams score in 23% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Wehda Club have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 6W 0D 7L in their last 13 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Wehda Club's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 2.33 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al Wehda Club or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wehda Club have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Al Wehda Club have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won 5-1 on 30 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wehda Club have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Wehda Club
1
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Al Wehda Club 1-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Wehda Club see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 33%, Al-Fateh 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Al Wehda Club) and 83% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al Wehda Club keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al Wehda Club's recent matches and 67% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Al Wehda Club's recent games and 83% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Wehda Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Wehda Club 0-2 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.36 xG and Al-Fateh 0.99 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Wehda Club fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Fateh outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.77 / defence 0.83 against Al-Fateh attack 1.06 / defence 1.25, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 45% | Draw 28% | Al-Fateh 27%, with Al Wehda Club to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Al-Fateh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 23%, Al-Fateh 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wehda Club 1.15 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.