Al Wehda Club 1-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Al-Ettifaq travel to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to take on Al Wehda Club. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wehda Club stand at 1W 0D 3L from 4 Pro League matches — 0.75 PPG. Last five: L L W L. They are averaging 0.25 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Wehda Club have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ettifaq's 1.40 PPG return is 0.65 points per game ahead of Al Wehda Club's 0.75 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Al Wehda Club's 0% rate and Al-Ettifaq's 30% (using overall form) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Data
Al Wehda Club trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Wehda Club 0% | Al-Ettifaq 50%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 25% | Al-Ettifaq 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 0.84 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.859 / defence 1.011 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.946 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.070. Data: 4 Al Wehda Club games / 34 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 29% | Draw 32% | Al-Ettifaq 39%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Ettifaq 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 0% | Al-Ettifaq 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 29% | Draw 32% | Al-Ettifaq 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Al Wehda Club 0.84 / Al-Ettifaq 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 0.859 / def 1.011 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.946 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Al-Ettifaq xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Wehda Club 1 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 29% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-L-W-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Wehda Club's attack rating (0.86) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
29%
3.45
32%
3.12
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
1.86
1.02
Al-Ettifaq xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
17%
5.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 15.9 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.02 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Wehda Club's recent record stands at 1W 0D 3L from 4 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 2L across 4 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Wehda Club on 0.75 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Al Wehda Club are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ettifaq in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
Have Al Wehda Club or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wehda Club have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Wehda Club's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Wehda Club
4
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 0, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2025, when Al-Ettifaq 2-1 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wehda Club tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Al-Ettifaq see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al Wehda Club 0% BTTS, Al-Ettifaq 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al Wehda Club) and 75% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 50%; Al Wehda Club have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al Wehda Club's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al Wehda Club's recent games and 75% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 0.84 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.02 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.95 / defence 0.86, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 29% | Draw 32% | Al-Ettifaq 39%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 25%, Al-Ettifaq 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wehda Club 0.75 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.