Al Wehda Club 0-0 Al-Adalah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wehda Club at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wehda Club vs Al-Adalah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Al Wehda Club welcome Al-Adalah to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wehda Club stand at 2W 2D 5L from 9 Pro League matches — 0.89 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.44 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 11% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.89 — Al Wehda Club are significantly better at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Adalah — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Adalah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Adalah's away record: 0W 1D 4L from 5 road trips in Pro League this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.89 PPG (Al Wehda Club) versus 0.40 (Al-Adalah). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Al Wehda Club in-play tendencies (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Al-Adalah in-play tendencies (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games; they fail to score in 56% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Wehda Club 11% | Al-Adalah 44%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Wehda Club 11% | Al-Adalah 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.73 xG and Al-Adalah 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.906 / defence 0.983 | Al-Adalah attack 0.760 / defence 1.449. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.151. Al-Adalah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.449 — this is suppressing Al Wehda Club's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Al Wehda Club games / 10 Al-Adalah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 58% | Draw 24% | Al-Adalah 18%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Adalah 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al Wehda Club (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wehda Club as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al Wehda Club 33% | Al-Adalah 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al-Adalah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 30 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 58% | Draw 24% | Al-Adalah 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.73 / Al-Adalah 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 0.906 / def 0.983 | Al-Adalah attack 0.760 / def 1.449 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Al Wehda Club (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Al-Adalah xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al-Adalah kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Adalah kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 30 December 2022 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Adalah?
Al Wehda Club 0 - 0 Al-Adalah.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Adalah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Adalah part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Adalah is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al-Adalah?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 58% chance of winning, Al-Adalah a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Wehda Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Adalah?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al-Adalah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al-Adalah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Adalah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Adalah in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 0.44 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Al-Adalah (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Wehda Club's attack rating (0.91) and Al-Adalah's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Adalah's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wehda Club Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.25
18%
5.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
2.59
0.86
Al-Adalah xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
5.44
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
3%
30.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Adalah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al-Adalah expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 0.86 for Al-Adalah, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Adalah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Al Wehda Club have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 2W 2D 5L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Adalah's form line: 1W 1D 7L from 9 games, 0.44 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Adalah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Wehda Club are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Adalah.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Wehda Club have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — Al Wehda Club are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Adalah have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Adalah's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wehda Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Wehda Club are averaging 0.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Adalah are on 0.56 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club have seen both teams score in 11% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al-Adalah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Adalah in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Al-Adalah have gone 1W 1D 7L in their last 9 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al-Adalah away?
Al Wehda Club's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 2.33 PPG; Al-Adalah away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Al Wehda Club or Al-Adalah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wehda Club have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Adalah in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Wehda Club and Al-Adalah runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Wehda Club
1
Draws
0
Al-Adalah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Adalah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 1, Al-Adalah have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al-Adalah last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2023, when Al-Adalah 1-2 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al-Adalah?
Al Wehda Club have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Adalah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Wehda Club at 33%, Al-Adalah at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Al Wehda Club) and 100% (Al-Adalah).
On the defensive side: Al Wehda Club keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al-Adalah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al-Adalah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Al Wehda Club's games and 100% of Al-Adalah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Adalah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al Wehda Club's recent games and 100% of Al-Adalah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al-Adalah tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Adalah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Wehda Club's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club and Al-Adalah finished level at 0-0 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.73 xG and Al-Adalah 0.86 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Wehda Club fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Al-Adalah landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Al-Adalah attack 0.76 / defence 1.45, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 58% | Draw 24% | Al-Adalah 18%, with Al Wehda Club to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 11%, Al-Adalah 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 28%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 11% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Adalah's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wehda Club arrived the stronger side — 0.89 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Adalah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.