Al Taee 1-2 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taee at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taee vs Al Wehda Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Al Taee welcome Al Wehda Club to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taee have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Al Taee's home record at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Al Wehda Club — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Wehda Club's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Al Taee) versus 1.00 (Al Wehda Club). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al Taee, 1 for Al Wehda Club and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Al Wehda Club winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al Taee in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Al Wehda Club in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 54% versus Al Wehda Club 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 64% | Al Wehda Club 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.27 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 0.934 / defence 1.067 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.793 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.264. Data: 58 Al Taee games / 28 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 41% | Draw 28% | Al Wehda Club 31%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Al Wehda Club 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taee are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taee offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Al Taee 50% | Al Wehda Club 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 41% | Draw 28% | Al Wehda Club 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Taee 1.27 / Al Wehda Club 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 0.934 / def 1.067 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.793 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Al Taee (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Al Wehda Club xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al Taee vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al Wehda Club?
Al Taee 1 - 2 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al Taee vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al Taee vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 41% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Taee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Taee and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al Wehda Club?
Record (1 meetings): Al Taee 0W | Draws 0 | Al Wehda Club 1W.
What form are Al Taee and Al Wehda Club in?
Al Taee (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Taee's attack at 0.93x the league average against Al Wehda Club's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wehda Club's attack versus Al Taee's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taee Win
41%
2.44
28%
3.58
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.34
1.07
Al Wehda Club xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
9%
11.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.07 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al Wehda Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Al Taee have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 10W 4D 14L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Al Wehda Club's form line: 7W 8D 13L from 28 games, 1.04 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Taee on 1.21 PPG, Al Wehda Club on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Taee have posted 1.57 PPG from 14 outings (7W 1D 6L).
On the road, Al Wehda Club have gone 3W 3D 8L from 14 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taee come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taee are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 0.86 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Current Season
Al Wehda Club
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 10W 4D 14L in their last 28 games (1.21 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 7W 8D 13L in their last 28 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Al Taee's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.57 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2023, when Al Wehda Club won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taee's record when hosting Al Wehda Club specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Taee
1
Draws
3
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al Wehda Club?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 0, Al Wehda Club have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2024, when Al Wehda Club 1-1 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al Wehda Club?
Al Wehda Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 43%, Al Wehda Club 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al Taee) and 29% (Al Wehda Club).
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Al Wehda Club in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al Taee's recent matches and 36% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taee vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al Taee's recent games and 29% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taee and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Wehda Club defy the odds to beat Al Taee 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club beat Al Taee 1-2 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.27 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.07 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Wehda Club outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 0.93 / defence 1.07 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.79 / defence 0.94, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 41% | Draw 28% | Al Wehda Club 31%, with Al Taee to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al Wehda Club win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 64%, Al Wehda Club 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taee 1.21 PPG, Al Wehda Club 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wehda Club win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.