Al Taee 0-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC make the trip to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium to face Al Taee in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 February 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Al Taee (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taee have posted 6W 1D 3L at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Al Taee are significantly better at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ittihad FC are 1.20 PPG clear of Al Taee in recent Pro League fixtures (2.10 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Taee lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Al Taee winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al Taee half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 46% versus Al-Ittihad FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 59% | Al-Ittihad FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.27 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.129 / defence 1.129 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.147 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.134. Al-Ittihad FC's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Al Taee games / 44 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 33% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 42%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Al Taee 40% | Al-Ittihad FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 33% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Taee 1.27 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.129 / def 1.129 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.147 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Al-Ittihad FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Taee 0 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 33% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al Taee 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 1W.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Taee (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Taee's attack rating (1.13) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.15x) against Al Taee's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
33%
3.05
25%
3.93
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.74
1.47
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
8%
13.24
12%
8.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.47 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taee's recent record stands at 17W 4D 23L from 44 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 29W 9D 6L across 44 games — 2.18 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Taee heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Taee have managed 11W 3D 8L from 22 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 13W 6D 3L across 22 trips, a 2.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taee are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.91 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 17W 4D 23L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 29W 9D 6L in their last 44 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.64 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.05 PPG.
Have Al Taee or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taee have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ittihad FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 0-3 on 7 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taee have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Taee
0
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2024, when Al Taee 0-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 59%, Al-Ittihad FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Al Taee and 54% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al Taee's games and 64% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Al Taee's matches and 54% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al Taee and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Taee 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Taee 0-1 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.27 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.47 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Taee fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.13 / defence 1.13 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.80, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 33% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 42%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 59%, Al-Ittihad FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Taee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.