Al Taee 3-1 Al-Faisaly FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taee at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taee vs Al-Faisaly FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium plays host to Al Taee versus Al-Faisaly FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 26 December 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Taee have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium this season: 3W 0D 3L from 6 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Faisaly FC (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record: 0W 3D 2L from 5 road trips in Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Al Taee — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Faisaly FC — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 42% versus Al-Faisaly FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 58% | Al-Faisaly FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.21 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.013 / defence 1.239 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.641 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.084 / away 1.049. Data: 13 Al Taee games / 12 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 43% | Draw 32% | Al-Faisaly FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Faisaly FC 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taee as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taee if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al Taee 67% | Al-Faisaly FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Dec 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 43% | Draw 32% | Al-Faisaly FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Al Taee 1.21 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.013 / def 1.239 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.641 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.084 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Al Taee (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Al-Faisaly FC xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Faisaly FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 26 December 2021 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Al Taee 3 - 1 Al-Faisaly FC.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 43% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al Taee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Faisaly FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al Taee (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Taee's attack at 1.01x the league average against Al-Faisaly FC's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Faisaly FC's attack (0.64x) against Al Taee's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taee Win
43%
2.30
32%
3.09
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.04
0.83
Al-Faisaly FC xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
7%
13.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 10.8 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Al Taee and 0.83 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Al Taee have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 4W 1D 7L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Faisaly FC's form line: 3W 6D 3L from 12 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-L. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Al Taee against 1.25 for Al-Faisaly FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Taee have posted 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (3W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Al Taee are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Faisaly FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taee come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taee are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 4W 1D 7L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 3W 6D 3L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
Al Taee's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.80 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 June 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Taee
0
Draws
1
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 1, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2022, when Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 Al Taee.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 60%, Al-Faisaly FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 60% for Al Taee and 0% for Al-Faisaly FC.
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Faisaly FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al Taee's recent matches and 40% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Al Taee's recent games and 0% of Al-Faisaly FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taee and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taee cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Faisaly FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al-Faisaly FC 3-1 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.21 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.83 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Taee beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.01 / defence 1.24 against Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.64 / defence 1.10, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 43% | Draw 32% | Al-Faisaly FC 24%, with Al Taee to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 58%, Al-Faisaly FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taee 1.08 PPG, Al-Faisaly FC 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taee win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taee (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Faisaly FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.