Al Taawon 1-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al-Fayha meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 23 February 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Taawon have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fayha (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Al Taawon, 1.70 for Al-Fayha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Taawon, 0 for Al-Fayha and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 67% versus Al-Fayha 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 50% | Al-Fayha 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.33 xG and Al-Fayha 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.880 / defence 1.061 | Al-Fayha attack 1.133 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.158. Data: 47 Al Taawon games / 46 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 36% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 39%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Fayha 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 60% | Al-Fayha 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Feb 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 36% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Taawon 1.33 / Al-Fayha 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.880 / def 1.061 | Al-Fayha attack 1.133 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al-Fayha xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 12:00 on Thursday 23 February 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Al Taawon 1 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 36% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fayha?
Record (3 meetings): Al Taawon 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fayha in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 0.88x the league average against Al-Fayha's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (1.13x) against Al Taawon's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
36%
2.80
26%
3.89
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.72
1.39
Al-Fayha xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
9%
11.27
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.39 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taawon come into this having played 46 games, going 16W 15D 15L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.17 PPG from 46 outings (13W 15D 18L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Al Taawon against 1.17 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Taawon's home form reads 7W 8D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 0.83 points per game from 23 outings (4W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.87 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 16W 15D 15L in their last 46 games (1.37 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 13W 15D 18L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.26 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 4-1 on 8 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Taawon
5
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 4, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Al Taawon 2-3 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Fayha?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 65%, Al-Fayha 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al Taawon) and 39% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Al Taawon's games and 52% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Al Taawon's recent games and 39% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon and Al-Fayha finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.33 xG and Al-Fayha 1.39 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against Al-Fayha attack 1.13 / defence 1.02, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 36% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 39%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 50%, Al-Fayha 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.37 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.