Al Taawon 2-2 Al-Faisaly FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al-Faisaly FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sport City Stadium plays host to Al Taawon versus Al-Faisaly FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Thursday 10 March 2022 at 14:50 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Taawon have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Al Taawon have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Faisaly FC's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Al Taawon, 0.90 for Al-Faisaly FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Taawon lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Al-Faisaly FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taawon 78% and Al-Faisaly FC 48% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 61% | Al-Faisaly FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.53 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.943 / defence 1.096 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.486 / defence 1.372. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.143. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.372 — this is suppressing Al Taawon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Al Taawon games / 23 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 59% | Draw 26% | Al-Faisaly FC 14%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Faisaly FC 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 70% | Al-Faisaly FC 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Mar 2022, 14:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 59% | Draw 26% | Al-Faisaly FC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 36% | xG Al Taawon 1.53 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.943 / def 1.096 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.486 / def 1.372 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Al-Faisaly FC xG
36%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Faisaly FC kicked off at 14:50 on Thursday 10 March 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Al Taawon 2 - 2 Al-Faisaly FC.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 59% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Faisaly FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al Taawon 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Faisaly FC 0W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 0.94x the league average against Al-Faisaly FC's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Faisaly FC's attack (0.49x) against Al Taawon's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
59%
1.68
26%
3.82
14%
6.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.14
0.61
Al-Faisaly FC xG
1.68
59%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
6.94
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
32%
3.09
3%
31.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 11.0 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.61 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 23 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 5W 9D 9L record — D-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Faisaly FC's form line: 5W 9D 9L from 23 games, 1.04 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Al Taawon against 1.04 for Al-Faisaly FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 1.18 PPG from 11 outings (3W 4D 4L).
On the road, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 4D 7L from 11 away games — 0.36 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Faisaly FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taawon are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 0.96 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 5W 9D 9L in their last 23 games (1.04 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 5W 9D 9L in their last 23 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.18 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 0.36 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Faisaly FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Al-Faisaly FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Taawon
2
Draws
0
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 0, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2022, when Al Taawon 2-2 Al-Faisaly FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 73%, Al-Faisaly FC 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al Taawon) and 27% (Al-Faisaly FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Faisaly FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 36% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al Taawon's recent games and 27% of Al-Faisaly FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon and Al-Faisaly FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon and Al-Faisaly FC finished level at 2-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.53 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.61 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Faisaly FC outscored their 0.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.94 / defence 1.10 against Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.49 / defence 1.37, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 59% | Draw 26% | Al-Faisaly FC 14%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 61%, Al-Faisaly FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.04 PPG, Al-Faisaly FC 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Faisaly FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.