Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 36%, yet in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Al Taawon welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to Al Taawon Arena. Kick-off is set for Thursday 6 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taawon's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Al Taawon Arena this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.40 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Al Taawon's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better historical record — 6 wins from 8 previous contests against 0 for Al Taawon.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al Taawon trading profile (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 62% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 51% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.08 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.708 / defence 0.817 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.874 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.362. Al Taawon's attack strength of 0.708 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Al Taawon games / 39 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 36% | Draw 35% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 6 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 36% | Draw 35% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Al Taawon 1.08 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.708 / def 0.817 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.874 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 6 May 2027 at Al Taawon Arena.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 36% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (8 meetings): Al Taawon 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 6W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 0.71x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
36%
2.81
35%
2.89
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.06
0.97
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.81
36%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
10%
9.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.97 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 15W 11D 13L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 28W 6D 5L from 39 games, 2.31 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 1.45 PPG from 20 outings (7W 8D 5L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 12W 3D 5L from 20 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Taawon are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.10 scored and 0.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 15W 11D 13L in their last 39 games (1.44 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 28W 6D 5L in their last 39 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.45 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Al Taawon
2
Draws
6
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Al Taawon 1-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 55%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al Taawon) and 40% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 35% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al Taawon's recent games and 40% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.