Al Taawon 0-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Al Taawon welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al Taawon's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Taawon register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Taawon, 1 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 2–3 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Taawon trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 91% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 68% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 54% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.84 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.133 / defence 1.064 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.468 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.485. Al-Ahli Jeddah have an above-average attack strength of 1.468 — the away xG of 2.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Al Taawon games / 22 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 30% | Draw 21% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 3.33 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.08. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.16. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.16 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 2.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 77% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 80% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 30% | Draw 21% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 77% | xG Al Taawon 1.84 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.32 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.133 / def 1.064 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.468 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
2.32
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Taawon 0 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 30% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 48% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (3 meetings): Al Taawon 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 1.13x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 2.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 7.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.5%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
30%
3.28
21%
4.75
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
1 – 1
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
4.16
2.32
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.28
30%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.31
23%
BTTS No
4.26
Clean Sheet
10%
10.19
16%
6.31
Win to Nil
3%
33.42
8%
13.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Al Taawon and 2.32 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 4.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 11W 6D 5L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 13W 5D 4L from 22 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Taawon on 1.77 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 1.82 PPG from 11 outings (6W 2D 3L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 6W 1D 4L from 11 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al Taawon are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.18 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 11W 6D 5L in their last 22 games (1.77 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 13W 5D 4L in their last 22 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.82 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Al Taawon
2
Draws
6
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Al Taawon 1-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Taawon at 73%, Al-Ahli Jeddah at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Al Taawon and 91% for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 91% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Al Taawon's games and 64% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Al Taawon's matches and 91% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al Taawon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Taawon 0-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.84 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.32 xG, a combined 4.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Taawon fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Al-Ahli Jeddah landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.13 / defence 1.06 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.47 / defence 1.11, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 30% | Draw 21% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 54%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.77 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.