Al Riyadh 0-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Riyadh face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Nassr make the trip to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Riyadh in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Monday 2 February 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Al Riyadh's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Riyadh at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Al Riyadh are significantly better at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Nassr (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Nassr arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Riyadh have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Nassr in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Al-Nassr, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–5 with Al-Nassr winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Nassr have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al Riyadh half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Riyadh 62% and Al-Nassr 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 56% | Al-Nassr 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.09 xG and Al-Nassr 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.759 / defence 1.096 | Al-Nassr attack 1.347 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.415. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.347 — the away xG of 2.09 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Al Riyadh games / 52 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 19% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 60%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Nassr 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Riyadh 70% | Al-Nassr 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 2 Feb 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 19% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG Al Riyadh 1.09 / Al-Nassr 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.759 / def 1.096 | Al-Nassr attack 1.347 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
2.09
Al-Nassr xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 15:15 on Monday 2 February 2026 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr?
Al Riyadh 0 - 1 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 19% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 60% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Nassr?
Record (5 meetings): Al Riyadh 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Nassr 4W.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Nassr in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Riyadh's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.35x) against Al Riyadh's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 2.09.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
19%
5.37
22%
4.62
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
3.18
2.09
Al-Nassr xG
5.37
19%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
12%
8.08
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
2%
43.40
20%
5.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 2.09 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Al Riyadh have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 12W 14D 26L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr's form line: 34W 8D 10L from 52 games, 2.12 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Riyadh.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Riyadh have posted 1.12 PPG from 26 outings (7W 8D 11L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 17W 3D 6L from 26 away games — 2.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.42 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Riyadh have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al-Nassr in 69%.
Last 52 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 12W 14D 26L in their last 52 games (0.96 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 34W 8D 10L in their last 52 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.12 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Al Riyadh or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Riyadh have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 5-1 on 20 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Riyadh have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Al Riyadh
1
Draws
6
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Nassr?
From 7 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Al Riyadh 0-4 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 54%, Al-Nassr 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Al Riyadh and 81% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr in 31%; Al Riyadh have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Al Riyadh's games and 69% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Al Riyadh's matches and 81% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Riyadh and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al Riyadh 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Riyadh 0-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.09 xG and Al-Nassr 2.09 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Riyadh fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Nassr landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.76 / defence 1.10 against Al-Nassr attack 1.35 / defence 0.95, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 19% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 60%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 56%, Al-Nassr 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.