Al Riyadh 0-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr encounter.

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Analysis

Al-Nassr make the trip to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Riyadh in Pro League (matchday 10). The match kicks off on Friday 8 November 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al Riyadh's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al Riyadh at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Al-Nassr (all games): 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Nassr away from home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

Al-Nassr arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Al-Nassr edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 May 2024, ended Al Riyadh 2–2 Al-Nassr — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al Riyadh half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Riyadh 58% and Al-Nassr 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Riyadh 56% | Al-Nassr 77%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Riyadh surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Al-Nassr have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 75% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.35 xG and Al-Nassr 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.928 / defence 1.029 | Al-Nassr attack 1.470 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.272. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack rating of 1.470, which lifts their away xG to 1.92. Data: built from Al Riyadh's last 43 games and Al-Nassr's last 43.

Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 27% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 51%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 3.70 | Draw 4.51 | Al-Nassr 1.97. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.35 / 1.92) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Riyadh's last 10 home games and Al-Nassr's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Riyadh 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Nassr 50% (last 10 away games).

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