Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Riyadh face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Riyadh host Al-Ittihad FC at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 3 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Riyadh have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Riyadh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Al Riyadh have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ittihad FC's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Al Riyadh's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Ittihad FC have the better historical record — 5 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Al Riyadh.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 3–1 with Al Riyadh winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al Riyadh trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Riyadh 63% and Al-Ittihad FC 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 55% | Al-Ittihad FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 0.85 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.792 / defence 1.050 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.930 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.362. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ittihad FC's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Al Riyadh games / 38 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 22% | Draw 32% | Al-Ittihad FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.17. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Riyadh 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 3 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 22% | Draw 32% | Al-Ittihad FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Al Riyadh 0.85 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.792 / def 1.050 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.930 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Al-Ittihad FC xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 3 December 2026 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 22% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (6 meetings): Al Riyadh 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 5W.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Riyadh's attack at 0.79x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al Riyadh's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
22%
4.56
32%
3.10
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.18
1.33
Al-Ittihad FC xG
4.56
22%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
6%
17.23
20%
5.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.33 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Riyadh's recent record stands at 8W 10D 20L from 38 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Riyadh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 11L across 38 games — 1.66 PPG, with L-D-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Riyadh heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Riyadh have managed 6W 5D 8L from 19 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 7W 7D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.58 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Riyadh have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 8W 10D 20L in their last 38 games (0.89 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.21 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Riyadh's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Riyadh
0
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Al Riyadh 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 53%, Al-Ittihad FC 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Al Riyadh) and 53% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al Riyadh's games and 68% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 53% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.