Al-Raed 5-0 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Raed host Damac at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 15 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Raed have posted 2W 2D 6L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Damac have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Raed at 1.00 PPG versus Damac's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Raed, 2 for Damac and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Jan 2023, ended 2–1 with Al-Raed winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Damac in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 49% versus Damac 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 60% | Damac 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.54 xG and Damac 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 1.002 / defence 1.373 | Damac attack 0.971 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.223. Data: 56 Al-Raed games / 55 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 36% | Draw 24% | Damac 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Damac 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 80% | Damac 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 15 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 36% | Draw 24% | Damac 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Raed 1.54 / Damac 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 1.002 / def 1.373 | Damac attack 0.971 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Damac (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Damac xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Damac kick off?
Al-Raed vs Damac kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 15 May 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Damac?
Al-Raed 5 - 0 Damac.
Where is Al-Raed vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Damac part of?
Al-Raed vs Damac is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 36% chance of winning, Damac a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Raed and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Damac?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Raed 1W | Draws 0 | Damac 2W.
What form are Al-Raed and Damac in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Damac (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Raed's attack at 1.00x the league average against Damac's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
36%
2.76
24%
4.25
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.17
1.63
Damac xG
2.76
36%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
7%
14.09
9%
11.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.63 for Damac, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 17W 11D 27L from 55 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 20W 16D 19L across 55 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Raed on 1.13 PPG, Damac on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 10W 4D 13L from 27 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Damac's away record stands at 9W 6D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.24 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 17W 11D 27L in their last 55 games (1.13 PPG), while Damac have gone 20W 16D 19L in their last 55 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Damac away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.26 PPG; Damac away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Damac runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Damac go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2023, when Al-Raed won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
1
Draws
5
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Damac?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 2, Damac have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Damac 1-0 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 44%, Damac 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al-Raed) and 56% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed have failed to score in 30% of games; Damac in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 52% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Al-Raed's recent games and 56% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Damac in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Raed run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Damac 5-0 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.54 xG and Damac 1.63 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Al-Raed beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Damac landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 1.00 / defence 1.37 against Damac attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 36% | Draw 24% | Damac 40%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Raed win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 60%, Damac 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Damac's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.13 PPG, Damac 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.