Al-Raed 1-2 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Riyadh at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Raed face Al Riyadh.

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Analysis

Al Riyadh make the trip to Al Raid Club Stadium to face Al-Raed in Pro League (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 17:35 UK time.

Form

Al-Raed (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Al-Raed's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Al Riyadh have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Al Riyadh have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Al-Raed against 1.40 for Al Riyadh. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Al-Raed edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Feb 2024, ended Al-Raed 1–1 Al Riyadh — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Al-Raed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Al Riyadh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 51% versus Al Riyadh 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 51% | Al Riyadh 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Raed surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Al Riyadh have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Al Riyadh surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Al-Raed recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.38 xG and Al Riyadh 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.838 / defence 0.981 | Al Riyadh attack 1.125 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.290. Data: built from Al-Raed's last 37 games and Al Riyadh's last 37.

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 36% | Draw 25% | Al Riyadh 38%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.74 | Draw 3.96 | Al Riyadh 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al Riyadh as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Raed 40% (last 10 home games) | Al Riyadh 70% (last 10 away games).

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