Al-Raed 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Al-Hilal Saudi FC travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Raed. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 March 2022, 14:50 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Raed have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Al-Raed have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Raed are significantly better at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home this season: 4W 5D 0L from 9 away games — 1.89 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.11 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Raed, 1 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 2–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Raed trading profile (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 43% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 48% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 0.85 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.778 / defence 1.114 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.325 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.153. Al-Raed's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.325 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 23 Al-Raed games / 21 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 19% | Draw 24% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 5.26 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 30% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 78%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 14:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 19% | Draw 24% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Raed 0.85 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.778 / def 1.114 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.325 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 14:50 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Raed 0 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 19% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 58% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Raed 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (0.78) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-2 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
19%
5.39
24%
4.19
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.55
1.70
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
5.39
19%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
3%
29.55
25%
4.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 13.3 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.70 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Al-Raed have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 7W 5D 9L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 12W 7D 2L from 21 games, 2.05 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Raed.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Raed have posted 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 4W 5D 0L from 9 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 7W 5D 9L in their last 21 games (1.24 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 12W 7D 2L in their last 21 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.56 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Al-Raed
1
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2025, when Al-Raed 3-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 33%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al-Raed) and 56% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Al-Raed's games and 78% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Raed's recent games and 56% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al-Raed 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Raed 0-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 0.85 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.70 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Raed fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.78 / defence 1.11 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.32 / defence 0.92, drawn from 23/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 19% | Draw 24% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 48%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.