Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Qadisiyah FC face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al-Fayha to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 5 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 1 for Al-Fayha and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 65% versus Al-Fayha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% | Al-Fayha 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.84 xG and Al-Fayha 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.307 / defence 1.056 | Al-Fayha attack 0.640 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.388. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 1.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 43 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 55% | Draw 29% | Al-Fayha 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.82 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Fayha 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% | Al-Fayha 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 55% | Draw 29% | Al-Fayha 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.84 / Al-Fayha 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.307 / def 1.056 | Al-Fayha attack 0.640 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Al-Fayha xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 5 November 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 55% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 16% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 3W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack rating (1.31) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
55%
1.80
29%
3.45
16%
6.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.78
0.94
Al-Fayha xG
1.80
55%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
6.41
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
2%
40.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0.94 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 30W 9D 4L from 43 games, a 2.30 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 20L across 43 games — 1.05 PPG, with D-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 14W 7D 1L from 22 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 4W 4D 14L across 22 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.47 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.14 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 30W 9D 4L in their last 43 games (2.30 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 11W 12D 20L in their last 43 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.23 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 64%, Al-Fayha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 59% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 50% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 59% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.