Al Okhdood 1-1 NEOM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEOM at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs NEOM encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Okhdood and NEOM meet at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Monday 2 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al Okhdood's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Al Okhdood have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Al Okhdood are significantly better at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City than their overall form suggests.
NEOM (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NEOM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEOM's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 2L across 8 road games this term (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.75 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, NEOM are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Okhdood have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, NEOM in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al Okhdood 0W, NEOM 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with NEOM winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
NEOM — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 50% versus NEOM 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 50% | NEOM 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.31 xG and NEOM 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.803 / defence 1.056 | NEOM attack 0.907 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.407. Data: 52 Al Okhdood games / 18 NEOM games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 36% | Draw 27% | NEOM 37%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | NEOM 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEOM are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEOM if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 60% | NEOM 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs NEOM | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City • Kick-off: Monday 2 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 36% | Draw 27% | NEOM 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Al Okhdood 1.31 / NEOM 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.803 / def 1.056 | NEOM attack 0.907 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: NEOM (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.35
NEOM xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs NEOM kick off?
Al Okhdood vs NEOM kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 2 February 2026 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs NEOM?
Al Okhdood 1 - 1 NEOM.
Where is Al Okhdood vs NEOM being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs NEOM part of?
Al Okhdood vs NEOM is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs NEOM?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 36% chance of winning, NEOM a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making NEOM the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs NEOM?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Okhdood and NEOM will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs NEOM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and NEOM?
Record (1 meetings): Al Okhdood 0W | Draws 0 | NEOM 1W.
What form are Al Okhdood and NEOM in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. NEOM (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Okhdood's attack rating (0.80) and NEOM's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — NEOM's attack (0.91x) against Al Okhdood's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 52/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEOM Win
36%
2.80
27%
3.71
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.66
1.35
NEOM xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
9%
10.79
10%
9.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs NEOM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and NEOM expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.35 for NEOM, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs NEOM?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Okhdood come into this having played 18 games, going 2W 3D 13L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NEOM sit at 1.33 PPG from 18 outings (7W 3D 8L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for NEOM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEOM carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Okhdood's home form reads 2W 2D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.50 PPG overall — Al Okhdood are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, NEOM have taken 1.75 points per game from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 1.33 PPG overall record — NEOM travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEOM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; NEOM are on 1.33 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEOM in 67%.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
NEOM
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and NEOM in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 2W 3D 13L in their last 18 games (0.50 PPG), while NEOM have gone 7W 3D 8L in their last 18 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or NEOM away?
NEOM's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 1.00 PPG; NEOM away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
1
NEOM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and NEOM?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 0, NEOM have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and NEOM last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Al Okhdood 1-1 NEOM.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and NEOM?
NEOM have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Al Okhdood, 75% for NEOM — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Okhdood) and 62% (NEOM). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / NEOM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play NEOM?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al Okhdood's games and 75% of NEOM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Okhdood vs NEOM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Okhdood's matches and 62% of NEOM's.
Do Al Okhdood and NEOM tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, NEOM in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Okhdood and NEOM share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 20, as Al Okhdood and NEOM drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.31 xG and NEOM 1.35 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.80 / defence 1.06 against NEOM attack 0.91 / defence 1.09, drawn from 52/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 36% | Draw 27% | NEOM 37%, with NEOM to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 50%, NEOM 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
NEOM's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NEOM arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.