Al Okhdood 2-4 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC meet at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Okhdood have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Okhdood have posted 2W 3D 5L at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the stronger side — 2.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Okhdood have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al Okhdood 0W, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 0.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al Okhdood half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Qadisiyah FC half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 49% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 49% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 0.89 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.748 / defence 1.311 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.333 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.355. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.333 — the away xG of 2.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Al Okhdood games / 55 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 12% | Draw 18% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 8.33 | Draw 5.56 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 0.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 60% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 12% | Draw 18% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 54% | xG Al Okhdood 0.89 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.37 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.748 / def 1.311 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.333 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
2.37
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al Okhdood 2 - 4 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 12% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 70% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al Okhdood 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Okhdood's attack at 0.75x the league average against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack (1.33x) against Al Okhdood's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 2.37.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
12%
8.35
18%
5.50
70%
1.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
3.26
2.37
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
8.35
12%
Home win
5.50
18%
Draw
1.43
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
9%
10.69
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
1%
89.28
29%
3.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.4 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 2.37 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Okhdood come into this having played 55 games, going 11W 11D 33L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.09 PPG from 55 outings (35W 10D 10L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.29 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Okhdood's home form reads 5W 7D 15L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 1.81 points per game from 27 outings (15W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.80 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 11W 11D 33L in their last 55 games (0.80 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 35W 10D 10L in their last 55 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.81 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Al Okhdood or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Okhdood have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Okhdood have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Qadisiyah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Okhdood
2
Draws
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Al Okhdood 2-4 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 59%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al Okhdood) and 56% (Al-Qadisiyah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 33%; Al Okhdood have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al Okhdood's games and 56% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al Okhdood's matches and 56% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Okhdood 2-4 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 0.89 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.37 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Al Okhdood beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Qadisiyah FC outscored their 2.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.75 / defence 1.31 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.33 / defence 0.81, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 12% | Draw 18% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 49%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.