Al Okhdood 2-1 Al Najma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Okhdood at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al Najma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Okhdood host Al Najma at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 31 October 2025 at 13:40 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Okhdood — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Okhdood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Okhdood's home record at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Najma stand at 0W 0D 6L from 6 Pro League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 2.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Najma have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Najma away from home this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Okhdood carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.70 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Al Okhdood trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Najma trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Okhdood 67% and Al Najma 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Okhdood 67% | Al Najma 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 2.32 xG and Al Najma 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 1.002 / defence 1.453 | Al Najma attack 0.791 / defence 1.577. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.476. Al Najma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.577 — this is suppressing Al Okhdood's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Al Okhdood games / 6 Al Najma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 51% | Draw 21% | Al Najma 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 1.96 | Draw 4.76 | Al Najma 3.70. Al Okhdood hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.02. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.02 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Okhdood are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 70% | Al Najma 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al Najma | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 31 Oct 2025, 13:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 51% | Draw 21% | Al Najma 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 74% | xG Al Okhdood 2.32 / Al Najma 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 1.002 / def 1.453 | Al Najma attack 0.791 / def 1.577 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Al Okhdood (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Al Najma xG
74%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al Najma kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al Najma kicked off at 13:40 on Friday 31 October 2025 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al Najma?
Al Okhdood 2 - 1 Al Najma.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al Najma being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al Najma part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al Najma is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al Najma?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 51% chance of winning, Al Najma a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Okhdood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al Najma?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al Najma will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al Najma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Najma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Najma in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Al Najma (all comps): 0W-0D-6L in 6 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Okhdood's attack at 1.00x the league average against Al Najma's defence at 1.58x — combine the two and it projects 2.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Najma's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Okhdood Win
51%
1.95
21%
4.71
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
4.02
1.70
Al Najma xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.34
26%
BTTS No
3.90
Clean Sheet
18%
5.45
10%
10.21
Win to Nil
9%
10.63
3%
37.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al Najma?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al Najma expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.70 for Al Najma, a combined total of 4.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al Najma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Okhdood's recent record stands at 0W 1D 5L from 6 games, a 0.17 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Okhdood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Najma, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 6L across 6 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Najma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Okhdood on 0.17 PPG, Al Najma on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Okhdood have managed 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Najma's away record stands at 0W 0D 3L across 3 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Okhdood are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Al Najma are on 0.67 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Okhdood have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Al Najma in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Early Season
Al Najma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Najma in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 games (0.17 PPG), while Al Najma have gone 0W 0D 6L in their last 6 (0.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al Najma away?
Al Okhdood's home record (0.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.00 PPG; Al Najma away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al Okhdood
0
Draws
0
Al Najma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Najma?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 2, Al Najma have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al Najma last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Al Najma 1-3 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al Najma?
Al Okhdood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Al Najma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Okhdood at 100%, Al Najma at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Al Okhdood and 100% for Al Najma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al Najma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al Najma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al Okhdood's games and 100% of Al Najma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al Najma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al Okhdood's matches and 100% of Al Najma's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al Najma tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Najma in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Okhdood edge out Al Najma 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood beat Al Najma 2-1 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 2.32 xG and Al Najma 1.70 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 1.00 / defence 1.45 against Al Najma attack 0.79 / defence 1.58, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 51% | Draw 21% | Al Najma 27%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 67%, Al Najma 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al Najma's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.17 PPG, Al Najma 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line. Al Najma (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.