Al Okhdood 1-2 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Okhdood at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Kholood make the trip to Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium to face Al Okhdood in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Thursday 28 November 2024 at 15:05 UTC.
Form
Al Okhdood (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Al Kholood have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood's away record: 1W 2D 3L from 6 road trips in Pro League this season (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Al Okhdood, 0.70 for Al Kholood — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Al Kholood — key trading statistics (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 46% versus Al Kholood 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 46% | Al Kholood 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.38 xG and Al Kholood 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.933 / defence 0.922 | Al Kholood attack 0.767 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.233. Data: 45 Al Okhdood games / 11 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 49% | Draw 28% | Al Kholood 24%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Al Kholood 4.17. Al Okhdood hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Okhdood are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Okhdood if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Okhdood 50% | Al Kholood 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Nov 2024, 15:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 49% | Draw 28% | Al Kholood 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Al Okhdood 1.38 / Al Kholood 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.933 / def 0.922 | Al Kholood attack 0.767 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Al Okhdood (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Al Kholood xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood kicked off at 15:05 on Thursday 28 November 2024 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood?
Al Okhdood 1 - 2 Al Kholood.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 49% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Okhdood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Kholood?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Kholood in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Al Kholood (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Okhdood's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Al Kholood's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Al Kholood's attack (0.77x) against Al Okhdood's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Okhdood Win
49%
2.05
28%
3.63
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.25
0.87
Al Kholood xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
6%
16.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.7 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 0.87 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Okhdood come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 3D 6L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Kholood sit at 0.64 PPG from 11 outings (1W 4D 6L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.82 PPG for Al Okhdood against 0.64 for Al Kholood. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Okhdood's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Kholood have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Okhdood are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.18 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Kholood in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al Kholood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 1W 4D 6L in their last 11 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al Kholood away?
Al Okhdood's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.83 PPG; Al Kholood away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Okhdood have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
1
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Kholood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 2, Al Kholood have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Al Kholood 0-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al Kholood?
Al Okhdood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Okhdood see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 33%, Al Kholood 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Okhdood) and 33% (Al Kholood).
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Okhdood have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al Kholood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 67% of Al Kholood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 33% of Al Kholood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Kholood defy the odds to beat Al Okhdood 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Kholood beat Al Okhdood 1-2 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.38 xG and Al Kholood 0.87 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Kholood outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against Al Kholood attack 0.77 / defence 1.04, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 49% | Draw 28% | Al Kholood 24%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Al Kholood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 46%, Al Kholood 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Al Kholood's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.82 PPG, Al Kholood 0.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Kholood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Kholood (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.