Al-Nassr 3-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Nassr host Al Taawon at Mrsool Park in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 26 August 2021 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taawon — All Games: 0W 1D 1L from 2 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Al-Nassr have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.25 xG and Al Taawon 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.281 / defence 1.158 | Al Taawon attack 1.097 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 0.956. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 2.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Taawon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Al-Nassr's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Al-Nassr games / 2 Al Taawon games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 58% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Al Taawon 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Aug 2021, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 58% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 65% | xG Al-Nassr 2.25 / Al Taawon 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.281 / def 1.158 | Al Taawon attack 1.097 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.336 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Al Taawon xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon kicked off at 18:45 on Thursday 26 August 2021 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Al-Nassr 3 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 58% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Taawon in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.25. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
58%
1.72
25%
4.04
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.47
1.21
Al Taawon xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
11%
9.51
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
2%
55.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.21 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Nassr come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Taawon sit at 0.50 PPG from 2 outings (0W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 2.00 scored and 2.50 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al Taawon in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2025, when Al-Nassr won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
2
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 6, Al Taawon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Nassr's games and 100% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al-Nassr's matches and 100% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Taawon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Taawon 3-1 at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.25 xG and Al Taawon 1.21 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.28 / defence 1.16 against Al Taawon attack 1.10 / defence 1.31, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 58% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 17%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 100%, Al Taawon 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Taawon managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.