Al-Nassr 2-2 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Nassr and Al-Raed meet at Mrsool Park in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 15:40 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Nassr's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 4L from 9 games (1.44 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.56 goals per game, with 1.22 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's home record at Mrsool Park: 3W 0D 2L from 5 Pro League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Raed (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Raed have posted 1W 1D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.44 PPG for Al-Nassr against 1.40 for Al-Raed. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Raed in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 67% versus Al-Raed 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 56% | Al-Raed 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.63 xG and Al-Raed 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 0.972 / defence 1.195 | Al-Raed attack 1.148 / defence 1.519. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 0.978. Al-Raed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.519 — this is suppressing Al-Nassr's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Al-Nassr games / 11 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Raed 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 60% | Al-Raed 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 15:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Nassr 1.63 / Al-Raed 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 0.972 / def 1.195 | Al-Raed attack 1.148 / def 1.519 | league avg home 1.102 / away 0.978 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Al-Raed xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed kicked off at 15:40 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed?
Al-Nassr 2 - 2 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 44% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Raed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Raed in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 4W-1D-4L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 1.22 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Al-Raed (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Al-Raed's defensive record (1.52x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Al-Raed's attack (1.15x) against Al-Nassr's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 9/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
44%
2.26
24%
4.14
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.97
1.34
Al-Raed xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
6%
16.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.34 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 4W 1D 4L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Raed's form line: 4W 2D 3L from 9 games, 1.56 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Al-Nassr against 1.56 for Al-Raed. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Raed's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Nassr are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.89 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 games (1.44 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Nassr's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 4-0 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
1
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al-Raed have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2025, when Al-Raed 1-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Raed?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Nassr see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 50%, Al-Raed 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al-Nassr and 75% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Raed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Nassr's games and 75% of Al-Raed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Nassr's matches and 75% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr and Al-Raed share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 12, as Al-Nassr and Al-Raed drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.63 xG and Al-Raed 1.34 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 0.97 / defence 1.20 against Al-Raed attack 1.15 / defence 1.52, drawn from 9/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 32%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 56%, Al-Raed 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Raed's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Nassr 1.44 PPG, Al-Raed 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.