Al-Nassr 2-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mrsool Park plays host to Al-Nassr versus Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 26 December 2021 at 13:50 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Nassr have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 2L across 6 games at Mrsool Park this term (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Hazm (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 4L across 6 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Al-Nassr, 0.90 for Al-Hazm — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 69% versus Al-Hazm 23%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 62% | Al-Hazm 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.08 xG and Al-Hazm 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 0.984 / defence 1.216 | Al-Hazm attack 0.560 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.052. Data: 13 Al-Nassr games / 13 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 43% | Draw 34% | Al-Hazm 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | Al-Hazm 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Al-Hazm's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 67% | Al-Hazm 0% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Dec 2021, 13:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 43% | Draw 34% | Al-Hazm 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Al-Nassr 1.08 / Al-Hazm 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 0.984 / def 1.216 | Al-Hazm attack 0.560 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Al-Hazm xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 13:50 on Sunday 26 December 2021 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Nassr 2 - 1 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 43% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (0.98) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.56x) against Al-Nassr's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
43%
2.34
34%
2.90
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
1.80
0.72
Al-Hazm xG
2.34
43%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
8%
12.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 11.8 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.72 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 6W 2D 5L from 13 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 2W 5D 6L across 13 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Nassr are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.69 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 23%.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 6W 2D 5L in their last 13 games (1.54 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 2W 5D 6L in their last 13 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Nassr's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 1.67 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 1-5 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Nassr 4-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 67% (Al-Nassr) and 0% (Al-Hazm) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Al-Nassr and 0% for Al-Hazm.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 33%; Al-Hazm in 83%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 0% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Nassr's recent games and 0% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al-Hazm 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Hazm 2-1 at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.08 xG and Al-Hazm 0.72 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 0.98 / defence 1.22 against Al-Hazm attack 0.56 / defence 1.00, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 43% | Draw 34% | Al-Hazm 23%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 62%, Al-Hazm 23%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.