Al-Nassr 3-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Al-Fayha travel to Al-Awwal Park to take on Al-Nassr. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 February 2025, 15:20 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr at Al-Awwal Park this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al-Nassr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Nassr: 5 wins from 7 previous clashes against 0 for Al-Fayha, with 2 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2024, ended 4–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Al-Fayha trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Nassr 69% and Al-Fayha 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 75% | Al-Fayha 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.82 xG and Al-Fayha 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.169 / defence 0.841 | Al-Fayha attack 0.904 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.349. Data: 52 Al-Nassr games / 52 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 56% | Draw 23% | Al-Fayha 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Fayha 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 70% | Al-Fayha 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Al-Awwal Park • Kick-off: Friday 7 Feb 2025, 15:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 56% | Draw 23% | Al-Fayha 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Nassr 1.82 / Al-Fayha 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.169 / def 0.841 | Al-Fayha attack 0.904 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Al-Fayha xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 15:20 on Friday 7 February 2025 at Al-Awwal Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Nassr 3 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al-Awwal Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 56% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Nassr 5W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.36
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.84
1.03
Al-Fayha xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
3%
29.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.03 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Nassr come into this having played 52 games, going 37W 9D 6L for 2.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.15 PPG from 52 outings (14W 18D 20L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.16 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Nassr's home form reads 17W 6D 3L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 1.23 points per game from 26 outings (8W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.63 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.12 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 37W 9D 6L in their last 52 games (2.31 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 14W 18D 20L in their last 52 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.19 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Nassr have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Al-Nassr won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
0
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 8, Al-Fayha have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Nassr at 69%, Al-Fayha at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Al-Nassr and 65% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Al-Nassr's games and 73% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Al-Nassr's matches and 65% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fayha 3-0 at Al-Awwal Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.82 xG and Al-Fayha 1.03 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fayha landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.17 / defence 0.84 against Al-Fayha attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 56% | Draw 23% | Al-Fayha 21%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 75%, Al-Fayha 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.