Al-Nassr 3-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (79%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Fateh make the trip to Al-Awwal Park to face Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Nassr have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Nassr have posted 5W 4D 1L at Al-Awwal Park — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Al-Nassr's favour (1.80 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Al-Nassr, who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Al-Fateh — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Al-Nassr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Nassr 68% and Al-Fateh 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 74% | Al-Fateh 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.84 xG and Al-Fateh 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.202 / defence 0.787 | Al-Fateh attack 0.731 / defence 1.626. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.409. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.626 — this is suppressing Al-Nassr's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Nassr's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Al-Nassr games / 50 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 79% | Draw 13% | Al-Fateh 8%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.27 | Draw 7.69 | Al-Fateh 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (79%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 70% | Al-Fateh 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Al-Awwal Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 79% | Draw 13% | Al-Fateh 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Nassr 2.84 / Al-Fateh 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.202 / def 0.787 | Al-Fateh attack 0.731 / def 1.626 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.84
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Al-Fateh xG
52%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Al-Awwal Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Nassr 3 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al-Awwal Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 79% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 8% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Nassr 4W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.20) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.63), the model arrives at 2.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.73x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
79%
1.26
13%
7.68
8%
12.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.84
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.65
0.81
Al-Fateh xG
1.26
79%
Home win
7.68
13%
Draw
12.72
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
6%
17.17
Win to Nil
35%
2.84
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 2.84 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.81 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 35W 9D 6L from 50 games, a 2.28 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 24L across 50 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fateh heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 16W 6D 2L from 24 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 6W 5D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.64 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.42 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Al-Fateh in 74%.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 35W 9D 6L in their last 50 games (2.28 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 14W 12D 24L in their last 50 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.25 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 0-5 on 25 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 6W 0D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Nassr
1
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 8, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Al-Nassr 3-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Al-Nassr, 75% for Al-Fateh — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al-Nassr and 75% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al-Nassr's games and 75% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al-Nassr's matches and 75% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fateh 3-1 at Al-Awwal Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.84 xG and Al-Fateh 0.81 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.20 / defence 0.79 against Al-Fateh attack 0.73 / defence 1.63, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 79% | Draw 13% | Al-Fateh 8%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 79%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 74%, Al-Fateh 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.