Al-Nassr 1-0 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Nassr vs Al Baten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Nassr host Al Baten at Mrsool Park in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 23 September 2021 at 16:25 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W L. They are averaging 2.25 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr's home record at Mrsool Park: 2W 0D 1L from 3 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al-Nassr are significantly better at Mrsool Park than their overall form suggests.
Al Baten — All Games: 1W 2D 2L from 5 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al Baten have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Al-Nassr in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
Al Baten in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 75% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Nassr 100% and Al Baten 25% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 100% | Al Baten 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.65 xG and Al Baten 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.221 / defence 1.309 | Al Baten attack 0.715 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.170. Data: 4 Al-Nassr games / 5 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 47% | Draw 31% | Al Baten 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Al Baten 4.55. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 100% | Al Baten 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Sep 2021, 16:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 47% | Draw 31% | Al Baten 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Nassr 1.65 / Al Baten 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.221 / def 1.309 | Al Baten attack 0.715 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Al Baten xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al Baten kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al Baten kicked off at 16:25 on Thursday 23 September 2021 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al Baten?
Al-Nassr 1 - 0 Al Baten.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al Baten part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 47% chance of winning, Al Baten a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Baten?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Baten in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.75 | L5 W-L-W-L. Al Baten (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.22x the league average against Al Baten's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Baten's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
47%
2.14
31%
3.18
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.74
1.09
Al Baten xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
4%
23.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.09 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al Baten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 2W 0D 2L record — W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Baten's form line: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al Baten, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Nassr on 1.50 PPG, Al Baten on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.50 scored and 0.75 conceded. Al-Nassr's scoring rate against Al Baten's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al Baten in 25%.
Defensively: Al Baten in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Al Baten
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
Have Al-Nassr or Al Baten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al Baten in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2022, when Al-Nassr won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al Baten specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
0
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Baten?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 4, Al Baten have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2023, when Al-Nassr 3-1 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al Baten?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 100%, Al Baten 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Al-Nassr and 25% for Al Baten. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Baten in 50%; Al Baten in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al Baten?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Nassr's games and 25% of Al Baten's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al-Nassr's matches and 25% of Al Baten's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al Baten tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Baten in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al Baten 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Baten 1-0 at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.65 xG and Al Baten 1.09 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Baten landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.22 / defence 1.31 against Al Baten attack 0.71 / defence 1.03, drawn from 4/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 47% | Draw 31% | Al Baten 22%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 100%, Al Baten 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Baten's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 75% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Nassr 1.50 PPG, Al Baten 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Nassr win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Nassr managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.