Al-Nassr 1-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Awal Park at King Saud University plays host to Al-Nassr versus Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Friday 13 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Nassr's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr at Al Awal Park at King Saud University this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Nassr's 2.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Al-Ahli Jeddah's 1.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Al-Nassr have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with Al-Ahli Jeddah managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Al-Nassr winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 69% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 81% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.65 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.264 / defence 0.998 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.954 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.221. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — their λ of 1.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Al-Nassr games / 36 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.70. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 90% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Nassr 1.65 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.264 / def 0.998 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.954 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Nassr 1 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 49% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Nassr 3W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.26x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (0.95x) against Al-Nassr's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
49%
2.05
24%
4.10
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.81
1.16
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
5%
19.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.16 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.39 PPG on a 27W 5D 4L record — D-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 20W 8D 8L from 36 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ahli Jeddah.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.22 PPG from 18 outings (12W 4D 2L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 8W 4D 6L from 18 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.92 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.92 scored and 1.00 conceded. Al-Nassr's scoring rate against Al-Ahli Jeddah's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 27W 5D 4L in their last 36 games (2.39 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 20W 8D 8L in their last 36 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.22 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Al-Nassr 2-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 72% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for Al-Nassr, 61% for Al-Ahli Jeddah — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Al-Nassr and 72% for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Al-Nassr's games and 61% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Al-Nassr's matches and 72% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 3, as Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.65 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.16 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.26 / defence 1.00 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 27%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 81%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.